The World Cup Sickie (And Why Banning It Will Cost You More)

This came up at our last HR on The Solway meeting in Dumfries and a few of the members shared that this summer's World Cup is going to be a headache. So, when I saw it land in the CIPD's own coverage this week, it confirmed what I was already hearing on the ground. 

Here's my take. The headache is real, but it's mostly self-inflicted. I've watched this play out through previous tournaments over my career, and the pattern never changes. The businesses that try to clamp down hardest tend to get the worst of it, while the ones that take a breath and plan sensibly sail through. Let me explain why, because this year there's a new wrinkle that makes it more important than ever.

The Numbers Nobody Wants to Hear

Let's start with the uncomfortable facts. Research presented by the CIPD estimates this year's World Cup could cost UK employers around £681m in lost productivity. More than a third of employees say they'll adjust their working patterns during the tournament, and over a quarter expect to miss work entirely by arriving late, leaving early, or simply not turning up. 

Then there's the absence. BrightHR predicts at least 3.6 million sick days will be taken over the tournament, costing employers an estimated £94m in sick pay. After Euro 2024, employee lateness reportedly jumped by 50% on the mornings after matches. And with this year's host nations spread across the US, Canada and Mexico, the late kick-offs and time difference mean the morning after is going to be the real danger zone. 

There's a quieter cost too. Around one in five employees expect to work while exhausted during the tournament, and roughly one in ten admit they might turn up hungover. So even the people who do show up aren't necessarily firing on all cylinders. 

The New Rule That Changes the Maths 

Here's the bit that's genuinely different this year, and it's the part I think a lot of smaller employers haven't clocked yet. 

Since 6 April, the Employment Rights Act 2025 scrapped the three-day waiting period for Statutory Sick Pay. That means employees can now claim SSP from their very first day of absence, where previously they got nothing until day four. Eligibility has widened too, covering many lower-paid and part-time workers who weren't entitled before. 

In plain terms, the sickie now comes with pay attached from day one. SSP sits at £123.25 a week, so a business that previously paid nothing for the first three days could now be looking at an extra £73.95 for every worker who takes three days off. For a small business with tight margins, that adds up fast. 

I'm not saying people will abuse it. Most won't. But it would be naive to pretend the incentive hasn't shifted, and employers need to go in with their eyes open. 

Why the Crackdown Backfires 

Now, the instinctive response to all of this is to clamp down. Ban the leave. Threaten disciplinary action. Send the "we're watching" email. 

I understand the temptation. I just think it's usually the wrong move, and here's why. 

First, rigid rules tend to manufacture the very problem they're trying to prevent. Tell a die-hard fan they categorically cannot have the morning off after a big match, and you've all but guaranteed a phone call at 8am with a mysterious 24-hour bug. You've turned an honest conversation into a dishonest one. 

Second, there's a real legal risk hiding in inconsistency. If you wave through time off for some employees but refuse the same request from others, you could be opening the door to a discrimination claim. Fairness here isn't just good manners, it's protection. 

And third, the crackdown forgets the people who couldn't care less about football. Reshuffle everyone's hours around the fixtures and you can quietly punish the staff who'd rather just do their job and go home. Whatever you decide, it has to work for them too. 

What Actually Works 

The employers who handle this well aren't the relaxed ones who let it all slide. They're the ones who plan. 

Decide your approach now, before kick-off becomes a flashpoint, and communicate it clearly. A simple, well-worded policy heads off most problems before they start. Worth knowing: research suggests around 40% of employers expect disruption, yet a similar number have no plan in place at all. Don't be in that second group. 

Where the work allows it, flexibility pays off. Let people swap shifts, start later after a late game, book the time properly, or watch a key match together if that suits your setup. People who feel trusted tend to repay it. People who feel policed tend not to. 

And the appetite for that flexibility is real. A CV-Library survey this month found that 55% of workers say World Cup flexibility would make an employer more attractive, 46% want adjusted hours, and a third would happily watch matches at work. Yet only around 14% of employers plan to allow a later start the morning after a late game, and over a third expect business as usual throughout. That's a gap worth closing, because the thing your people want most here costs you very little to offer. 

And brief your managers. They're the ones who'll be fielding the requests, and they need to apply the same rules to everyone, consistently and without favourites. 

For the Candidates Reading This 

Because this blog is read by just as many job seekers as employers, a word for you too. 

If you're tempted to pull a sickie after a big game, think twice. It feels low-risk, but lateness and absence patterns around tournaments are so well documented now that employers are actively watching for them. A reputation is a hard thing to rebuild. 

The honest route almost always works better. Ask for the time. Offer to make it up. Be upfront. In my experience, a manager who's asked openly will say yes far more often than the one who's been lied to. Honesty costs you a slightly awkward conversation. The alternative can cost you trust you won't easily win back. 

Encouragingly, that's the way the wind is blowing. That same CV-Library research found only around 2% of workers plan to pull a sickie after a late match, while nearly three-quarters say they'll simply tell their employer the truth if football affects them. The old "24-hour bug" is finally going out of fashion. Don't be the one still clinging to it. 

A Cross-Border Headache of Its Own 

There's an extra wrinkle for those of us working across the Solway, and it's one I expect to come up plenty over the next few weeks. 

Scotland have qualified for their first men's World Cup since 1998, and the Scottish Government has approved a one-off national bank holiday on 15 June to mark it, with the First Minister encouraging employers to be flexible. But it's already splitting opinion. Some councils, like South Lanarkshire, have granted staff the extra day. Others, like the Western Isles, have said they simply can't afford it. 

For employers in Dumfriesshire, and for Cumbrian businesses with staff who live north of the border or commute across it, that creates an awkward question. Do you mirror the holiday or not? There's no right answer, but there is a wrong way to handle it, which is to ignore it and hope nobody notices. People talk. If the firm down the road gave a day off and you said nothing, your team will know. Whatever you decide, decide it openly and explain your reasoning. 

The Bottom Line 

The World Cup isn't a productivity threat to be defeated. It's a predictable, manageable few weeks that rewards employers who plan and punishes those who panic. 

Be clear about your expectations. Be flexible where you can. Be fair to football fans and non-fans alike. And remember that the new sick pay rules mean a heavy-handed approach could cost you more than the matches ever would. 

Plan for it properly and it's a non-event. Pretend it isn't coming and, well, you'll be the one drafting that stern email at 8am after the next big match. 

I'm hearing the same worry from clients right across the patch, so I'll throw it open. How are you planning to handle it this summer? Banning the leave, putting a screen up in the break room, flexing the mornings after? I'd love to know what's working locally, drop me a message or a comment, because the best ideas in this region always come from the people actually living it. 

Until next Sunday, 

Lyndsey

P.S. We've got a strong line-up of roles live right across Cumbria and the North East. Head over to our jobs page and take a look, you never know what you might find!